Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis

Recent Publications and Bulletins

The risk management of tobacco control research policy programs

Objective:
The Canadian Tobacco Control Research Initiative recently examined how forward looking risk management methods could be used to understand the complexity of available information in order to support research and resource planning among the various different stakeholders involved in a national tobacco control system. With historically falling smoking trends, rationing of resources, and the emergence of other health priorities (e.g. obesity, exercise), the overall dedicated focus on tobacco control initiatives is at risk of being reduced. It is therefore important for the tobacco control community to be able to advise policy makers of the consequences of changing tobacco control measures.

A population-based economic analysis of episodic work benefits

Background:
An increasing number of Canadians are living with episodic disabilities, including mental illness, cancer, lupus, multiple sclerosis, diabetes, and HIV/AIDS. Episodic disabilities are characterized by periods of illness and wellness, making it a challenge for individuals living with them to earn an adequate and secure income. Most have to rely on government and private programs. These programs, however, often define disability in terms of permanent or extended inability to work so individuals who qualify for these programs effectively become trapped into continued dependence on the assistance program. Participants of the Episodic Disabilities Network have identified income security and labour force participation as two key issues faced by people living with episodic disabilities in Canada.

An analytical test of the importance of specific chronic disease strategies in Canada

Background:
Recent Canadian population based health care discussions and initiatives have focused upon the question of whether a general national chronic disease strategy for Canada can be justified in the absence of national chronic diseases-specific strategies. There is an absence of quantitative analysis in the literature on this issue, and the question is debated primarily upon qualitative grounds. This paper provides a quantitative consideration of the issue.

National chronic disease strategy versus national chronic disease strategies

Background:
Recent Canadian population-based health care discussions and initiatives have focused upon the question of whether a general national chronic disease strategy for Canada can be pursued in the absence of specific national chronic diseases strategies, such as the Canadian Strategy for Cancer Control. There is an absence of quantitative analysis in the literature on this issue, and the question is debated primarily upon qualitative grounds.

Selected Canadian life and economic forecast impacts of lung cancer

Background:
An analysis of the impacts of lung cancer on life and economics employing objective risk measurement and management methods can support national planning for cancer control resources. Life at Cancer Risk (L@CR) was developed as a cancer strategy framework to measure the risk associated with future burden due to cancer, including lung cancer. The absence of information systems that incorporate a national perspective of the impact of lung cancer on key value indicators in Canada necessitates such estimation methods, which take account of the age status of the population, increasing tumour incidence, and the national rationing of resources for the public health system.

Interdisciplinary cancer risk management: Canadian life and economic impacts

Background:
Modern risk management methods can support long term national planning for cancer control resources. Life at Cancer Risk (L@CR) was developed using an interdisciplinary approach employing various techniques based on the laws of physics as well as practical risk management considerations implied from global banking techniques. The approach allows for the dynamic measurement of the risk associated with future life impacts due to cancer and provides valuable management information.

Scenario Capability for Central Banks

Central banks play critical roles in banking systems that require them to operate in financial markets, staying abreast of financial innovation and understand and leverage technological developments. The difficulties of performing the risk based responsibilities of a central bank is, however, magnified by the momentum of financial markets to grow, innovate and integrate. Their work place is in a constant state of flux.

Two Potentials, One Result-Part 3

In this last paper on devising a complete market risk framework, Paul Smetanin shows how a framework based upon scenario simulation can assist traders in identifying and managing the portfolio's counterparty exposure.

The Truth is in the Colours-Part 2

In this second paper of a three-part series, Paul Smetanin discusses the importance of generating relevant profit and loss scenarios and the advantages of colour-coding those risks in presentation to management. This follows on from August’s paper, Devising a Market Risk Framework.

Devising a Market Risk Framework-Part 1

In the first article of a three-part series on completing the market risk framework, Paul Smetanin, former global head of market risk at ANZ in Melbourne, explains his views on what it takes to complete the market risk process in the modern financial institution and the importance of determining a framework for market risk management.

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