Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis

Recent Publications and Bulletins

Potential intensive care unit ventilator demand/ capacity mismatch due to novel swine-origin H1N1 in Canada

Purpose:
To investigate the ability of Canadian intensive care units (ICUs) and ventilators to handle widespread re-emergence of the swine-origin H1N1 virus in the context of an aggressive strategy of vaccination.

Adequacy of current antiviral stockpiles under the Canadian pandemic influenza plan

Background:
The purpose of the current study was to analyze the adequacy of the current Canadian antiviral stockpile during a moderate, drug sensitive influenza pandemic in Canada under three potential interpretations of the Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan (CPIP).

Modeling the second wave of novel soH1N1 virus in Canada

Due to the capricious nature of a pandemic, the precise impact of a soH1N1 second wave remains largely a matter of speculation. This is a cause of concern for those responsible for coordinating pandemic responses. Dynamic pandemic modelling can assist resource planners that need to adapt to a pandemic as it unfolds. Since early June, a pandemic model has been periodically fit to soH1N1 Canadian data with resulting attack rates ranging between 21% and 29%, peaking generally around late December.

Contrast of prophylactically protecting Canadian health care workers and emergency service providers: A moderate Canadian pandemic mathematical assessment

Background:
The spread of the avian strain of H5N1 influenza and the current worldwide outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) highlights an urgent need for preparedness and coordinated health system strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. Canada acknowledges the benefits of antivirals (both therapeutically and prophylactically) in reducing the impact of a pandemic. A Canadian Pandemic Influenza Plan CPIP) exists and Canadian governments have stockpiled antivirals. The use of antivirals as treatment and prophylaxis within the CPIP Annex E are based on the recommendations put forth by the Task Group on Antiviral Prophylaxis (TGAP). The strategy does not recommend the use of antiviral prophylaxis for emergency service providers and limited post exposure prophylaxis for health care workers.

Lives at Risk from Cancer in New South Wales 2007-2036

Background:
Cancer currently represents the major burden of disease facing our community. It is the major cause of death, the major cause of premature deaths and the major cause of deaths in the productive age groups 45 to 65 years. The incidence rates have increased by 10 per cent in men and seven per cent in women over the last few years. The exceptions are increasing incidence rates of prostate cancer and decreasing incidence rates of breast cancer. However, the numbers of cancer cases continue to increase.

Life and economic impacts of nosocomial methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus, clostridium difficile and vancomycin-resistant enterococci in Canada 2009 to 2038

The goals of the current report are: (1) to estimate the life and economic burden in Canada attributed to the incidence of three nosocomial infections; and (2) to demonstrate the value proposition significance if this burden can be reduced by systematic interventions to improve strategies for nosocomial infections control and prevention. The stated goals of the report are achieved by applying a systematic discrete eventsimulation analysisto the life and economic impacts of methicillin‐resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), clostridium difficile (c. difficile) and vancomycin‐resistant enterococci (VRE) upon the Canadian population and economy from 2009 to 2038.

Potential effects of mental illness on Canadian tobacco control policy risk

Objective:
Recent evidence indicates a strong correlation between mental illness and the prevalence of tobacco dependence/ consumption. Population-based simulation is conducted to understand the significant of this issue.

A population-based risk management framework for cancer control

Objective:
Modern risk management methods can be used to reduce information complexity and support resource planning that engages the many perspectives involved in a national cancer control system. A framework is sought that allows for the dynamic measurement of the various risks associated with future life impacts due to cancer and that provides valuable communication tools for cancer control management that enables the transformation of knowledge into action.

The risk management of tobacco control research policy programs

Objective:
The Canadian Tobacco Control Research Initiative recently examined how forward looking risk management methods could be used to understand the complexity of available information in order to support research and resource planning among the various different stakeholders involved in a national tobacco control system. With historically falling smoking trends, rationing of resources, and the emergence of other health priorities (e.g. obesity, exercise), the overall dedicated focus on tobacco control initiatives is at risk of being reduced. It is therefore important for the tobacco control community to be able to advise policy makers of the consequences of changing tobacco control measures.

A population-based economic analysis of episodic work benefits

Background:
An increasing number of Canadians are living with episodic disabilities, including mental illness, cancer, lupus, multiple sclerosis, diabetes, and HIV/AIDS. Episodic disabilities are characterized by periods of illness and wellness, making it a challenge for individuals living with them to earn an adequate and secure income. Most have to rely on government and private programs. These programs, however, often define disability in terms of permanent or extended inability to work so individuals who qualify for these programs effectively become trapped into continued dependence on the assistance program. Participants of the Episodic Disabilities Network have identified income security and labour force participation as two key issues faced by people living with episodic disabilities in Canada.

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