Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis

Recent Publications and Bulletins

Simulation as a Strategy for Linking Epidemiologic Data to Health Policy Decisions

Background:
Epidemiologic estimates for mood and anxiety disorders have been available for several decades, but using this information to improve population mental health is a difficult challenge. In distinction to traditional epidemiologic methods (e.g. estimation of population parameters), simulation involves developing a representation of the epidemiology, allowing exploration of “what if” scenarios reflecting alternative policy options. A simulation model representing the epidemiology of mood and anxiety disorders in Canada has recently been developed and played a role in shaping Canada’s recently published national mental health strategy.

Potential Health and Economic Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions

The objective of the study was to estimate the potential health and economic benefits that may arise due to pharmaceutical interventions in a wide variety of illnesses.

The Life and Economic Impact of Major Mental Illnesses in Canada: 2011 to 2041

Background:
Mental illness is a behavioural or psychological syndrome that significantly interferes with an individual’s thought processing abilities, social abilities, emotions and behaviour (Mental Disorders, WHO). Depending on the type of mental illness, the severity of the illness may vary from mild to severe and contribute to disability and health care service use.

Life and Economic Burden of Arthritis in Canada 2010 to 2040

Background:
Arthritis is one of the most prevalent chronic conditions in Canada and one of the leading causes of disability and health care utilization. The aging of the Canadian population has led to an epidemiological shift in disease profile, resulting in illnesses such as arthritis becoming one of the biggest challenges facing society. Prevalence projections suggest that by 2010 over 4.4 million Canadians will have osteoarthritis (OA) and over 272,200 will have rheumatoid arthritis (RA), representing 13.0% and 0.8% of the Canadian population, respectively.

Life and Economic Impact of Lung Disease in Ontario: 2011 to 2041

Background:
Asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer are highly prevalent in Ontario and a leading cause of disability, suffering and health care service use. The aging of the Ontario population coupled with risk factors such as smoking, has led to lung disease becoming one of the key challenges facing society. Prevalence estimates suggest that over 2.4 million Ontarians currently have some form of lung disease, representing 18.2% of the Ontario population. In 2011, the growing burden on health care and social service systems in Ontario is estimated to be $1.6 billion, $3.3 billion and $158.6 million in direct health care costs alone, for asthma, COPD and lung cancer, respectively. The total economic burdens (direct and indirect costs) for asthma, COPD and lung cancer are estimated to be over $1.8 billion, $3.9 billion and $293.9 million, respectively. The life and economic consequences of lung disease will be further magnified over the next 30 years due to the increase in the expected number of people living with these conditions.

Potential pediatric intensive care unit demand/ capacity mismatch due to novel pH1N1 in Canada

Objective:
To investigate the possibility of pediatric intensive care unit shortfalls, using pandemic models for a range of attack rates and durations. The emergence of the swine origin pH1N1 virus has led to concerns about shortfalls in our ability to provide pediatric ventilation and critical care support.

H1N1 2009 Pandemic Analysis: Evaluation and Scenarios for Post-Pandemic Planning

Background:
The 2009 pH1N1 pandemic took the lives of 428 individuals and led to 8,678 hospitalizations in Canada. Despite these sobering numbers, it appears that as a result of existing pandemic preparation measures, Canadian health services were able to mitigate the effects of the virus and avoid a more serious public health crisis. However, it must be emphasized that pH1N1 proved to be generally mild and that, despite this, many issues emerged during the pandemic, raising questions about the capacity of the healthcare system and the appropriate level of intervention in such circumstances. Since pH1N1, the notion of a pandemic is no longer as abstract as it once appeared, either for public health officials or for the general population. Using pH1N1 Canadian data as a baseline, this analysis seeks to inform post‐pandemic public health discussions that focus on the evaluation of antiviral and vaccine interventions, considering several plausible hypothetical scenarios.

Rising Tide: The Economic Impact of Dementia on Canadian Society

Based on the technical report "Rising Tide: The Impact of Dementia in Canada 2008 to 2038" by Smetanin, P; Kobak, P; Briante, C; Stiff, D; Sherman, G; Ahmad, S.

Optimizing cost-effective pandemic antiviral strategies including antiviral resistance

Background:
Antiviral drugs are an effective means to improve the recovery rate and reduce mortalities of people with influenza if the virus is sensitive to the drug. Under widespread use for prophylaxis and treatment with the risk of resistant variants arising, the consequences and cost-effectiveness of antivirals are less certain. The objective of this study was to identify the antiviral strategies that remain effective in both life and cost terms, when the characteristics of an emerging pandemic are unknown.

Evaluation of Pandemic H1N1 Interventions in Canada

Background:
The first pandemic of the millennium was declared in June 2009. At that time, the pH1N1 virus was already in circulation in Canada and early reports from around the world indicated a potentially severe pandemic. The initial projections did not materialize but it was not clear whether this was due to the nature of the virus, or the success of public health initiatives. The objective of this analysis was to examine the effectiveness of the interventions used in Canada from both a health and economic point of view.

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